Opinion: Disaster risk and Protection gaps
Disaster risk and Protection gaps
Increasing international focus on the role of insurance in addressing a key risk to societal resilience
Disasters - whether the consequence of natural hazards such as floods or earthquakes or of human threats such as cyberattacks – can destroy buildings and infrastructure, disrupt economic activity and create financial hardship for the affected individuals, households and businesses. Insurance can play a critical role in assuming a portion of these risks and providing a source of funding to help societies recover and rebuild. It can also make a critical contribution to improving society’s understanding of these risks and providing a price signal to incentivise prevention and risk reduction. Higher levels of insurance coverage for disaster risks can reduce post-event economic contractions, speed post-disaster recovery times and reduce the disaster recovery burden on taxpayers.
However, there are significant protection gaps for many disaster risks (ie in terms of the gap between the amount of economic losses incurred and the amount of losses absorbed by insurance markets). GFIA’s own important work on protection gaps in early 2023 demonstrated the substantial gaps in financial protection against natural hazard and cyber risks as well as in health and pensions. While important progress is being made in expanding access to insurance coverage and retirement savings options in many parts of the world, environmental, economic and social trends such as climate change, digitalisation, ageing populations, urbanisation and globalisation will make it increasingly challenging to close these protection gaps in the future.
“GFIA’s own important work on protection gaps in early 2023 demonstrated the substantial gaps in financial protection against natural hazard and cyber risks as well as in health and pensions.”
Understanding protection gaps: a global challenge
Protection gaps for disaster risks have been a longstanding priority for the OECD Insurance and Private Pensions Committee (IPPC), whose main objective is to maximise the economic and social benefits of insurance and pensions markets. In November 2023, the OECD Council adopted an updated OECD Recommendation on Building Financial Resilience to Disaster Risks to provide governments with high-level guidance on managing the financial impacts of disasters – including by leveraging the risk expertise and financial capacity of the insurance sector. The OECD IPPC has also been leveraging its unique strength as a convenor to bring together key stakeholders from governments, regulators, supervisors and the insurance sector for regular roundtables on protection gaps, providing an opportunity to share experiences and lessons from around the world. The roundtable organised in December 2023 offered an opportunity to share lessons between the insurance and pensions sectors, which face similar challenges in terms of ensuring that individuals have access to – and demand for – the financial tools necessary to mitigate potential financial vulnerabilities.
There is increasing international attention to addressing natural hazard risks. In May 2024, the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors welcomed a G7 High-Level Framework for Public-Private Insurance Programmes against Natural Hazards, developed based on contributions from the OECD and IAIS. The G7 High-Level Framework provides a step-by-step guide to addressing protection gaps in natural hazard insurance, from undertaking an assessment of the protection gaps that could lead to financial vulnerabilities to implementing policy, regulatory and/or supervisory measures to reduce protection gaps to considering the establishment of a Public-Private Insurance Programme – and how to design such a programme.
“Protection gaps for disaster risks have been a longstanding priority for the OECD IPPC, whose main objective is to maximise the economic and social benefits of insurance and pensions markets.”
Collaborative solutions for resilience
Addressing protection gaps will require continued collaboration between governments, insurance regulators and supervisors and the (re)insurance sector. The OECD will continue to provide high-quality analysis on this issue and a forum for countries and stakeholders to share experiences and potential solutions, including through ongoing and planned work on flood risk insurance programmes (see Box), protection gaps in retirement savings and insurance for natural hazard risks in Asia and the relative benefits and limitations of an insurance-based approach to responding to large-scale risks.
Collectively, we have much work to do if we want to effectively address the challenges that are leaving so many unprotected against the growing financial impacts of disasters and I can assure you that these issues will continue to be an important component of our work at the OECD.
“Addressing protection gaps will require continued collaboration between governments, insurance regulators and supervisors and the (re)insurance sector.”
Awareness-raising campaigns
Insurers across Europe are involved in a broad range of awareness-raising campaigns. For instance, in Germany, risk-awareness campaigns are implemented jointly by state authorities, consumer protection organisations, the insurance industry, architects and other stakeholders. Their collaboration is built around a common goal: to raise awareness of the effects of climate change and natural hazards, of the benefits of loss prevention, and of best practices as regards natural catastrophe-resilient buildings. The high level of risk awareness in Germany is one of the reasons for the relatively low protection gap; indeed, the insurance penetration rate for natural perils such as storm or hail is more than 90%.
Most European insurance associations have initiatives to raise risk awareness, such as dedicated workshops, events and educational seminars, as well as frequent in-depth articles, themed newsletters, presentations and other publications.
Many French insurers have launched prevention campaigns and also support the campaigns of “Assurance Prévention”, an association founded by the French insurance association (France Assureurs). Assurance Prévention has produced numerous leaflets, infographics, quizzes, etc. to raise awareness of natural risks. Through its initiatives, it aims to develop a “culture of risk prevention” among students and teachers.
Education
The European insurance industry works to increase financial literacy in relation to risk awareness, insurance protection and long-term savings:
The Croatian Insurance Bureau (HUO) launched a first educational project in 2009, “Financial literacy in the Republic of Croatia”, which was followed by a range of educational activities, often implemented jointly with independent insurers. One of these activities, “Safer Tomorrow”, was initiated in 2021, and aims to raise citizens’ awareness of the benefits of insurance. Within the framework of the project, HUO launched several videos and infographics, some of which specifically target young people.
The HUO organises a yearly competition for the best scientific paper, the best graduate thesis and the best undergraduate thesis in the field of insurance. HUO also publishes the “Croatian magazine for INSURANCE”, a scientific journal for professionals to advance good practice in the sector. Finally, some insurers in Croatia created a colouring book for children to promote financial literacy at a young age in a fun and simple way.
In Italy, the ANIA Academy, together with CeTIF (Research Centre on Technologies, Innovation and Finance of the Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore), launched the second edition (2022) of the 2nd level master’s in insurance management to train professionals and enable them to respond to the challenges of the “new normal”.
ANIA is also collaborating with LUISS Business School to develop a major course in insurance management as part of its Executive Master in Financial Management.
Insurance Europe produces information for consumers as part of its “InsureWisely” financial education initiative. This includes one-pagers on different insurance topics, including how to limit the effects of natural catastrophes.
The French insurance association (France Assureurs) developed a series of educational booklets within the framework of EDUCFI (the French national strategy for economic, budgetary, and financial education), an initiative launched by the French Central Bank. These booklets help users to better understand how insurance works and what insurance products do and do not cover.
The Spanish insurance association (UNESPA) set up a financial education programme for schools, “El Riesgo y Yo” (“The Risk and I”). It involves 40 insurance undertakings and 164 volunteers and aims to give 2 500 teenage school students basic financial knowledge and insights into risk management.
Tools and solutions for consumers
Several insurers have developed tools or applications to inform consumers of extreme weather events and whether their properties are at risk from such events.
In 2021, the German insurance association (GDV) introduced a new system for making the risk to buildings of heavy rain damage more transparent. Buildings are placed into one of three risk categories, depending on their location.
The German insurance sector has also developed the “Naturgefahrencheck” (Natural hazards check) and “Hochwassercheck” (Flood check) online tools. With one click, every citizen can check the degree to which their home is at risk of flood, hail and storms. It is quick and easy to understand, it provides the information by postal code area free of charge and it does not require registration.
Swedish insurers developed VisAdapt, a tool designed to help homeowners to decrease the risk of weather-related events affecting their houses.
The Austrian association of insurers (VVO) and the Austrian government jointly developed the HORA app/website (Natural Hazard Overview and Risk Assessment Austria), which helps to determine whether there is an impending risk of flooding or other natural hazards. The website also presents up-to-date weather data on floods, including on water levels, as well as earthquakes, storms, hail, lightning and snow.
French insurers participate in the National Observatory for Natural Risks, a project involving three major partners: the Ministry of Ecological Transition, the CCR (Caisse Centrale de Réassurance) and the MRN (Mission Risques Naturels), an association created by the French insurance association (France Assureurs). This initiative aims to boost prevention and contribute to increased awareness of the risk of natural disasters by keeping citizens informed of their exposure to potential natural hazards.
The Salvage Foundation was established as an independent foundation in 1986 at the initiative of Dutch fire insurers, which are all members of the Dutch insurance association (VVN). The Salvage Foundation is unique in Europe and provides aid after fire, water, lightning, explosion or storm damage. Salvage arrives on site within an hour, undertakes damage mitigation activities, arranges shelter and provides the insurance company with the information it needs to carry out the claim settlement process without delay.
Tools and solutions for insurers
Some associations have developed tools to help insurers assess the risks and consequences of natural hazards.
In Germany, ZÜRS Geo (Zonierungssystem für Überschwemmungsrisiko und Einschätzung von Umweltrisiken) is an online zoning tool that allows insurers to calculate accurately different types of flood risk and offer risk-related premiums.
ANIA Safe, a subsidiary of Italian insurance association ANIA, created GeoSafe, a platform that uses AI-based calculations and models to help insurance companies evaluate the risks and consequences of natural hazards and disasters, such as floods, earthquakes and crop damage.
The French insurance association (France Assureurs) created a dedicated technical body, Mission Risques Naturels (MRN) and MRN GIS (General Information System), to assist private insurers in analysing their customers’ and prospective customers’ exposure to different natural hazards. MRN GIS also gives insurers access to public authorities’ hazard-zoning data, and data on land-use planning restrictions by risk level.
The French CERES tool (accessible to insurers via the CCR website) helps private insurers to benchmark their geolocalised loss records against those of the market.
In Spain, UNESPA published a report to help insurers navigate the recommendations and opinions issued by supervisors and international organisations on the procedures for insurers to integrate sustainability risks and factors into the different areas of their governance.
Forecasting and early warnings
The Dutch insurance association (VVN) publishes an annual Climate Impact Monitor (Klimaat Impact Monitor) in collaboration with Wageningen University & Research (WUR). The Climate Impact Monitor provides a compilation of extreme weather data and loss data, and other climate-related data. The VVN collaborates with the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) on issuing early warnings of extreme weather events. Combining data from the KNMI with risk and loss data from Dutch insurers allows for greater preparedness in the face of changing weather patterns, and the development of solutions to prevent damage from future extreme weather events.
UK insurers carry out a range of activities to support national and regional forecasting of future weather and catastrophe patterns. They use these outputs to inform their business practices, including pricing decisions and risk-based capital assessments. The UK insurance sector also uses such modelling in its dialogue with policymakers and has lobbied for robust action on climate change by the government.
Floods
The Czech insurance association (ČAP) and Intermap Technologies, with the support of reinsurer Swiss Re, created flood maps that are used to assess the likelihood of floods occurring in the Czech Republic. ČAP members use the system to evaluate risks and calculate property insurance premiums. It is also a useful free tool for consumers, as it helps them to determine whether their property is situated in a flood zone and it provides them with important information about insurance options, indicating for instance where there would be a possible premium increase. (Commercial and company use requires a contract with Intermap Technologies). The map data is updated regularly to ensure consistency with the information used by ČAP members.
The German insurance sector has also developed the “Naturgefahrencheck” (Natural hazards check) und “Hochwassercheck” (Flood check) online tools. With one click, every citizen can check the degree to which their home is at risk of flood, hail and storms. It is quick and easy to understand, it provides the information by postal code area free of charge and it does not require registration.
Swedish insurers developed VisAdapt, a tool designed to help homeowners to decrease the risk of weather-related events affecting their houses.
The Austrian association of insurers (VVO) and the Austrian government jointly developed the HORA app/website (Natural Hazard Overview and Risk Assessment Austria), which helps to determine whether there is an impending risk of flooding or other natural hazards. The website also presents up-to-date weather data on floods, including on water levels, as well as earthquakes, storms, hail, lightning and snow.
In Germany, ZÜRS Geo (Zonierungssystem für Überschwemmungsrisiko und Einschätzung von Umweltrisiken) is an online zoning tool that allows insurers to calculate accurately different types of flood risk and offer risk-related premiums.
Bridging the flood risk insurance gap
Flood risk poses a particular challenge for many countries. Changing precipitation patterns, more severe storms and more frequent intense rainfall events have led to increasing losses in many parts of the world. Just in the months of August and September of this year, we witnessed torrential rain and flooding across nine Central European countries, excess rainfall leading to flooding across 14 countries in the Sahel, typhoon-related flooding in East and Southeast Asia and a 1-in-1000-year rainfall event in the US state of North Carolina.
Protection gaps in insurance coverage for flood risk are larger than for most other natural hazards (approximately 19% of economic losses from floods between 2000 and 2023 were insured)1 – which has led a growing number of countries to establish (or expand) Public-Private Insurance Programmes to cover flood risk. In 2024, the IPPC began a project examining the design of flood risk insurance programmes in OECD and selected non-OECD countries, with a focus on how different design approaches impact the achievement of the different possible objectives outlined in the G7 High-Level Framework, such as ensuring broad coverage, leveraging private insurance sector expertise and capacity, protecting public finances and supporting risk reduction.
1 OECD calculations using data from Swiss Re, sigma database. All rights reserved (all countries, excludes loss years with no reported insured losses)